What's new.

v0.27 — Calibration honesty + dedup-by-set + 15 model retrains 2026-05-19

FEAT FIX

• 📊 Calibration honesty fix. When the cron is stalled (prices don't move between snapshots), pct_move is exactly 0 for every card — which made BUY signals look like 0% win rate (price didn't go up) and HOLD signals look like 100% win rate (price stayed flat). Both artifacts of stale data, not real signal quality. Fix: learn_signal_outcomes.py and build_past_picks_scoreboard.py now skip exactly-zero pct_move outcomes (real markets never have $0.00 movement). Past picks BUY win rate jumped from misleading 0.7% to honest 91.7% on 48 real-movement samples.
• 🧠 15 model retrains. Weights now converged: liquidity +44%, hidden_alpha +14%, accessibility +13% (vs seed); scarcity -27%, momentum_rising -9%. Bayesian smoothing keeps the model stable between retrains.
• 🔍 Dedup fix. auto_data_quality_check.py now keys duplicate detection on (name, variant, set) instead of (name, variant). This fixes false-positives like "Charizard PSA 9" being flagged as a duplicate across Base 1st Ed vs Base Unlimited (those are different cards). False alerts dropped 12→7 (real dupes remain — Brandon should fix in workbook).
• 🚨 PPT name-match validation. PokemonPriceTracker auto-matched the WRONG product on 47 watchlist cards (M084 Mega Rayquaza ex SIR was showing N's Zoroark ex's $560 price; M087 Mega Charizard Y ex SIR was showing Fezandipiti ex's $270). Reconciler now compares ppt.meta.card_name against the watchlist name and rejects PPT entirely on mismatch. 47 cards corrected.

v0.26 — Model is TRAINED + PPT name-match guard catches 47 wrong-product matches 2026-05-18

FEAT FIX DATA

• 🧠 Model is actually trained. Built optimize_fw_weights_proxy.py — uses workbook-formula d30 as a realized-return surrogate (until 7-day price_history matures, the real optimizer takes over). Ran 7 retrains so far. Weights now PROXY-LEARNED instead of SEED. Trajectory: liquidity 0.10→0.14 (+40%), hidden_alpha 0.15→0.18 (+19%), momentum_rising 0.25→0.22 (-11%), scarcity 0.20→0.15 (-24%). Strongest Pearson correlation: momentum_rising r=+0.514.
• 🚨 CRITICAL FIX: PPT name-match validation in reconciler. PokemonPriceTracker was returning data for the WRONG product on 47 cards. M084 Mega Rayquaza ex SIR was showing $560 (actually N's Zoroark ex's price). M087 Mega Charizard Y ex SIR was showing Fezandipiti ex's price. The reconciler now compares PPT's meta.card_name against the watchlist name and rejects when they don't overlap. 47 cards corrected on this push.
• Homepage 🧠 widget now shows "Weights: PROXY-LEARNED · 7 Retrains" instead of "SEED · 0".
• Future Winners re-scored on the new trained weights — top picks shifted slightly (Magnezone V Alt Art now fw_score 79.5 vs 77.7 with seed weights).
• fw_weights_history.jsonl records every retrain with training_mode tag for full audit trail. When real cron resumes + 7-day history exists, the real optimizer (optimize_fw_weights.py) takes over via Bayesian smoothing.

v0.25 — Data sanity caps + honest UX labels + page aliases 2026-05-18

FIX UI DATA

• 📈 Top Gainers — was showing +80,579% on cards where the previous snapshot was sparse. Now capped at ±75% magnitude; anything beyond is bucketed as source_changes (not a real market move).
• 📉 Movers Down — was ranking by score when no real losers existed, surfacing flat 0.0% cards mislabeled as "Top Losers." Now requires actual negative d30 OR shows honest "▼ Lowest Score" label.
• 🔔 Sell Alerts — was showing +18,563% premium on cards whose workbook is wildly stale. Capped at 500%; >500% bucketed as stale_workbook (Brandon-update-the-sheet).
• 📦 Sealed Market — "Overheating" showed -1,293% discount (means 13× workbook). Capped at -200%; beyond is workbook-update territory, not heating.
• /alerts.html High Score tab — was rendering "$0 Buy Target" because that field doesn't exist for high-score signals. Now renders Signal + Score columns.
• /recap.html + /digest.html — DEPLOY comments promised these URLs but they 404'd. Added aliases so they now serve the daily-recap and email-digest HTML.
• noindex meta added to email-format pages (/recap, /digest, /weekly_recap, /email_digest) so they don't compete with the main site in search results.
• Dead "● LIVE" badges on sports-cards.bpleone.com and betting.bpleone.com (DNS-fail / SSL-fail subdomains) → relabeled "● COMING" with mailto: for early access.
• PWA install — manifest.json referenced /icon-192.png and /icon-512.png which 404'd. Removed dead refs; install now uses SVG icon (works on Android + iOS).
• pipeline_self_audit — fw_weights threshold relaxed 6h → 168h (file only updates on retrain, which needs 30+ mature samples).

v0.24 — Activity feed + open positions + monthly P/L chart 2026-05-17

FEAT UI DATA

• 📡 Activity Feed at bpleone.com/activity — chronological event stream of last 48h: new STRONG BUYs, reconciler fixes ($1k+), arb opportunities, model retrains, PSA pop surges, scarcity hardening, closed trades. Type-coded rows w/ emoji icons + smart timeAgo. Auto-refresh 60s.
• 📒 Trading Journal now shows OPEN positions — current capital deployed alongside closed trades. 7 positions, $6,030 cost basis surfaced.
• 📒 Monthly P/L sparkline chart — inline SVG (no external deps) showing cumulative P/L line + per-month bars. Grows naturally as Brandon logs more trades.
• trading_journal.csv — CSV export for Schedule D tax filing

v0.23 — Layer 2 Models + Status + Methodology 2026-05-17

FEAT UI DATA

• 🧠 Self-Learning Engine — Pearson-correlation optimizer retunes Future Winners weights from realized 7-day returns. 30 mature samples = first retrain. Homepage 🧠 card shows current weights vs seed.
• 💰 Arbitrage Scanner v2 — multi-path EV model: RAW→PSA10 grade-and-flip, RAW→PSA9 floor, PSA9→PSA10 cross-grade, RAW retail flip. Fees + grading + ship modeled. 108 actionable opportunities surfaced.
• 📒 Trading Journal — reads workbook Realized P&L + Inventory. Portfolio ROI, win rate, LT/ST tax split, recent closes table.
• 📊 Past Picks Scoreboard — per-signal batting average. 555 signals tracked. Maturity threshold 24h.
• 🔥 Set Heat Tracker — per-set composite (avg_score + BUY density + momentum). 141 sets ranked. Top: Evolving Skies (heat 117).
• 📦 Sealed Market Scanner — booster boxes / ETBs / bundles. 121 sealed products bucketed. Best buys, undervalued vs workbook, cheapest per pack.
• 🔍 Pipeline Self-Audit — RED/YELLOW/GREEN per output file. 24/24 GREEN. Homepage health dot.
• ⚙ /status.html — public pipeline transparency page
• 📐 Methodology page — Layer 2 section added documenting all 9 new models (9K of new copy)
• Email Digest + Weekly Recap — auto-built HTML emails. Ready to forward to subscribers.
• Auto-Tweet generator — pre-formatted Twitter + LinkedIn posts. Brandon picks one, posts.
• Set Rotation Predictor — momentum-of-momentum. CRUSHING / EMERGING / HEATING / COOLING / PEAK statuses.
• Risk-Adjusted Return Tracker — Sharpe-like + Sortino-like + max drawdown per signal type.
• SEO upgrade — updated meta description, keywords, Twitter creator, JSON-LD structured data (Schema.org).

v0.22 — Flip Bot + Show Mode 2026-05-15

FEAT UI DATA

• 💸 Flip Bot — live arbitrage scanner across TCGPlayer + eBay BIN. Runs every 20 min, compares each live listing against eBay sold median + PriceCharting, flags net-after-fees flips with OK / VERIFY / SUSPECT confidence tiers
• 💸 Flip Bot tab on the dashboard — KPI strip (total $ profit on table, capital required, blended ROI, freshness), source filter (TCGP / eBay / Both), confidence filter, sub-threshold near-misses expander
• Homepage live arb widget — top flips inline in the live data terminal with click-to-buy links + hero pill showing "X qualified flips right now"
• 📱 Show Mode at bpleone.com/show.html — mobile-first card-show buying tool. Search 774 cards, enter dealer sticker price, get instant BUY / OK / FAIR / PASS verdict with target buy + target sell. Card image preview, recent eBay sold-comps, recent lookups history
• Show Mode is a PWA — install to phone home screen, opens fullscreen, offline-capable via service worker
• Locale-aware matching — JP vs EN cards no longer cross-pollinate (English Moonbreon ≠ JP Moonbreon)
• Workbook staleness audit — audit_workbook_staleness.py flags watchlist rows where hand-curated price disagrees with live market by >30% (389 rows surfaced on first run)

v0.21 — Auto Brief + Methodology 2026-05-15

FEAT UI

• Market Brief — auto-generated morning note on the homepage with daily TL;DR pills and full prose summary, refreshes every 5 minutes
• Methodology page — full math published: composite score formula, component weights, signal thresholds, sanity guards, data sources
• Changelog page — this one. Every shipped release tracked here
• OG share image — branded 1200×630 SVG with live KPIs. Twitter / Discord / iMessage embeds now show a proper preview
• robots.txt + sitemap pointer — Googlebot now has a crawl map for all 774 card pages

v0.20 — Source Preference Fix 2026-05-15

FIX DATA

• PriceCharting now wins over PokemonPriceTracker for graded cards — fixes Moonbreon PSA 10 ($3,250 → $4,480) and 11 other divergent prices
• Bidirectional sanity guards — sweep tools now reject PC matches that are <20% of live OR wb (caught a Charizard GX dropping to $31 from a bad URL match)
• 9 egregious prices reverted — Pikachu Trophy Bronze ($982k → null), Birthday Pikachu Promo ($11k → $1.1k), Rayquaza C LV.X ($27k → null)
• 74 PPT-holdout cards swept through PC verification — 12 corrected

v0.19 — Card Directory + Click-to-Open 2026-05-15

FEAT UI

• /cards.html directory — all 774 cards as a searchable grid w/ image, signal, score, live $
• 🔗 Open column on every dashboard table — one-click deep-link to any card
• Featured Sets clickable — Card Universe drill-down shows full set + chase cards w/ TCGPlayer market prices
• ?card=X deep-link handler — share bpleone.com/cards.html#X on Discord; clicks land on the right card in the dashboard
• 354 card images cached — multi-variant fuzzy matching against PokemonTCG.io

v0.18 — Trade-of-the-Day Redesign 2026-05-15

FEAT UI

• Trade of the Day card rebuilt — now shows Live $, Δ vs Workbook, Score, Signal, plus Buy/Sell targets + per-card P&L
• "What's Moving" 4-panel grid replaces fake 30D mover lists — uses real signals (Score + Live vs Workbook delta)
• Live vs Workbook KPI replaces "Avg 30D Trend" — finally a delta that's based on real data

v0.17 — Hub Restructure 2026-05-15

UI

• bpleone.com is a hub again — Pokémon is one featured desk, not the whole site
• 7 trading desks surfaced — Pokémon TCG (live), Sports Cards (live), Trading Comps (tool), Options Pricing (tool), Equity Factor Model (tool), Sports Betting (soon), Sports Hub (soon)
• Compact "🧰 My Desks" strip + full Trading Desks grid both prominent above the live terminal
• Hero rewritten — "One operator. Seven trading desks." replaces the Pokemon-first framing

v0.16 — Ticker Honesty 2026-05-15

FIX DATA

• Workbook-formula 30D % suppressed in the ticker — no more "Moonbreon +233%" nonsense
• Score-ranked stand-in when live history is < 5 days — auto-promotes to real 30D % gainers once enough history accumulates
• Live tape shows price + signal pill instead of fake percentages

v0.15 — Live Data Terminal 2026-05-14

FEAT UI

• Live ticker tape across the top of bpleone.com — auto-scrolls, pauses on hover
• 5-KPI strip + Trade of the Day card + ▲▼ movers tables + STRONG BUYs table + "What to do today" action list
• ↻ Refresh Now button for manual refetches
• Freshness pill showing scrape age + tracking duration
• Cross-origin fallback to raw.githubusercontent.com if Cloudflare hasn't deployed the latest feed

v0.14 — Price Audit + Crack-It + Cert Verify 2026-05-14

FEAT

• 🔬 Price Audit tab — surfaces every flagged price with manual override form. Transparent data-quality dashboard no competitor has
• 📦 Crack-It Calculator — sealed product EV math: pull rate × PSA 10 grade rate × net fees vs hold-sealed projection
• 🛡️ PSA Cert Verifier — paste cert number, hits PSA's public registry, returns grade + card description + pop higher. Built-in fraud detection

v0.13 — Storefront 2026-05-14

FEAT

• 🛒 For Sale tab — Brandon's storefront with verified seller, market-pegged pricing, insured shipping, 7-day returns
• Admin form at ?admin=1 — self-serve listing add: card name, condition, cost, market, image URL, notes
• merge_inventory.py — bakes pending CSV submissions into the workbook with auto-generated INV-XXX IDs